Module 5
Evidence in Context
Putting it together: what the CMMI track record actually shows, the certification bar for expansion, and a checklist for reading any evaluation.
By the end of this module, you will be able to:
- Summarize what the Congressional Budget Office found about CMMI's first decade
- Explain what certification for national expansion requires and why it is rarely met
- Apply a systematic checklist when reading any value-based care evaluation
- The CMMI Track Record, Honestly After more than a decade and dozens of models, what does the evidence actually show? A clear-eyed look at the Innovation Center's record. About 5 min
- Certification and Expansion The law sets a specific, high bar for declaring a model a success worth scaling. This lesson explains the certification standard and why so few clear it. About 4 min
- Becoming a Critical Consumer The capstone: a practical checklist for reading any value-based evaluation, and the posture that separates analysis from advocacy. About 5 min
Module quiz
Answer all questions to see your score.
1. What did the CBO find about CMMI's net effect on federal spending in its first decade?
CBO found CMMI increased direct spending by about $5.4 billion from 2011 to 2020, spending roughly $7.9 billion to save about $2.6 billion.
2. What must happen for a CMMI model to expand nationwide?
The actuarial-certification bar is the legal 'it worked' standard; only about four of roughly 70 models have met it.
3. What is the first question to ask about any claimed program effect?
Every effect is a comparison against an estimate of what would have happened otherwise; a weak counterfactual sinks the whole result.